Global sugar surplus projected for upcoming season leads to plummeting prices

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-06-30 14:31:00

Sugar prices fell on Monday, with NY sugar hitting a 4-1/4 year low. Concerns about demand led to a liquidation of the July NY sugar futures contract before its expiration. Commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years.

Expectations of a global sugar surplus have caused sugar prices to drop in the last three months. The USDA projected a +4.7% y/y increase in global 2025/26 sugar production to a record 189.318 MMT, with ending stocks at 41.188 MMT. India’s expected high sugar production and favorable monsoon could further impact prices negatively.

Brazil and India are both forecasted to have higher sugar production, which is likely to put downward pressure on prices. The Indian government easing restrictions on sugar exports may also contribute to the surplus. Thailand’s increased sugar production adds to the bearish outlook for sugar prices.

Reduced sugar production in Brazil is providing some support to sugar prices. The International Sugar Organization raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high, tightening the market. The USDA also projected a record high in global sugar production and consumption for 2025/26, contributing to the surplus.

Read more: Sugar Prices Plunge as NY July Futures Contract Expires