Sugar prices fell on Monday as October NY world sugar #11 closed down -1.63% and August London ICE white sugar #5 closed down -3.08%. Prices have plummeted due to expectations of a global sugar surplus, with projections indicating record-high production and ending stocks for the 2025/26 season.

Despite initial gains, NY and London sugar prices dropped last week. Concerns over global sugar supply tightening prompted Pakistan to announce plans to import 500,000 MT of sugar, while the Philippines plans to import 424,000 MT.

India’s projected 2025/26 sugar production is expected to rise by 19% y/y, leading to bearish price trends. Favorable monsoon forecasts in India could result in bumper sugar crops. Additionally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are all projected to see increases in sugar production for the upcoming season.

India’s decision to allow sugar exports may impact prices, with projections indicating a 17.5% y/y decrease in 2024/25 sugar production. Thailand reported a 14% y/y increase in sugar production for the same season, contributing to bearish trends in sugar prices.

Reduced sugar production in Brazil is supporting sugar prices, with a 14.3% y/y decline in cumulative 2025/26 output reported by Unica. The International Sugar Organization raised its global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high, indicating a tightening market after a surplus in the previous season.

The USDA’s bi-annual report forecasts a record-high global sugar production and human sugar consumption for the 2025/26 season. Ending stocks are expected to increase by 7.5% y/y. The outlook for robust global supplies continues to impact sugar prices.

Read more at Yahoo Finance: Sugar Prices Fall on the Outlook for Robust Global Supplies