A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq’s IR team.

#marketseverywhere | “Thanksgiving is a typically American holiday. In spite of its religious form (giving thanks to God for a good harvest), its essential, secular meaning is a celebration of successful production. It is a producers’ holiday. The lavish meal is a symbol of the fact that abundant consumption is the result and reward of production. Abundance is (or was and ought to be) America’s pride—just as it is the pride of American parents that their children need never know starvation.” -Ayn Rand

| Charts of the Week:

* source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, John Stoltzfus

| Charts of the Week: QQQ continues to break out and is up nearly up 50% ytd!!!

* source: CNBC

| Bloomberg’s index of US financial conditions easing to its most accommodative in 2 months… below is Goldman’s same story…

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| “Second largest corporate client buyback inflows in our data history (since ’10); buybacks above seasonal trends.” -BofA

* source: BofA

| ACHTUNG! Retail earnings disappointments? Consumers pulling back? 

“Lowe’s declined nearly 4% premarket after reducing its full-year sales outlook. Best Buy dropped more than 5% following a reduced full-year outlook and revenue miss. Clothing retailer American Eagle tumbled 15.5% after weaker-than-expected operating income guidance for the full year.” -CNBC

| Fewer S&P 500 companies discussing “recession” on earnings calls for 5th straight quarter -Factset Insight

* source: Factset Insight

| More global central bank cuts than hikes now… | “So, the big question is whether we’re “higher for longer” now or whether we will soon see a big global easing cycle.” -Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid

* source: Deutsche Bank

| Meanwhile, Fed shrinking its bloated balance sheet – legacy of Quantitative Easing…

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

| 2024 the year of global or US economic downturn? | “The nineteenth consecutive decline in the Conference Board leading index painted a bleak picture, but the details continue to point to a less severe picture.” -Oxford Economics

* source: Oxford Economics

* source: Piper Sandler

| “The so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks have returned 73% YTD compared with just 6% for the remaining 493 firms. 

We expect the mega-cap tech stocks will continue to outperform given their superior expected sales growth, margins, re-investment ratios, and balance sheet strength. 

But the risk/reward profile is not especially compelling given elevated expectations.” -Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities + TYields + Oil HIGHER | Dollar LOWER 

-FOMC minutes today at 2PM

-Nvidia earnings after market close today

Themes: holiday shortened trading week | Earnings winding down | Nvidia reporting earnings this week = big expectations | Will the seasonal market rally last? | Continued geopolitical risks 

-By Shon Wilk

DJ -0.1% S&P500 -0.3% Nasdaq -0.5% R2K -0.6% Cdn TSX -0.2%

Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 4.412%

Dollar LOWER, Gold $2,002, WTI -1%, $77; Brent -1%, $82, Bitcoin $36,860

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2) Nasdaq Investor Flows by Bill Bailey

Even with tame inflation headlines and the market rally extending, we continue to see reluctance from the long-only institutionals to participate

Healthcare = least favorite sector while they also turned sour again on Tech as frothy valuations become a renewed focus

Hedge Funds/Prime Brokers reversed their buying from last week and were quickly taking profits following a nice move up across most sectors/stocks

Retail traders were selling individual stocks and moving into broader index products for safe exposure

* source: Nasdaq Investor Flows, by Bill Bailey

3) Performance

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5) THIS WEEK: 

Global flash PMIs for November 

“Other signals of whether economies are softening will include durable goods orders in the US, inflation in Japan, and sentiment gauges in Europe.

From central banks, the FOMC minutes will be high on investors’ agenda, as will the ECB’s account of their October meeting. In corporate earnings, the spotlight will be on Nvidia on Tuesday.” -Deutsche Bank

* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

OFF TODAY

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

Nvidia earnings OpenAI drama, record high stock price set table key report-YAH
Treasuries rise to erase 20B23 losses as Fed cut bets blossom-BBG
China property stocks surge, Sunac rallying 27%, Beijing picks 50 firms-BBG
Yuan seen extending rally to approach key 7 level by year-end-BBG
Over 75% of foreign money invested into Chinese stocks in 2023 has left-FT
Fed’s Barkin says ‘job’s not done’ on bringing inflation down-BBG
US demand for new credit down in 2023, New York Fed survey shows-RTRS
China guides banks to cap early 2024 loans, shift some forward-BBG
ECB rates probably at plateau for a few quarters, Villeroy says-BBG
BoE signals rates must stay high in spite of fall in inflation-FT
RBA’s Bullock says inflation remains a ‘crucial challenge’-BBG
Higher interest rates are shattering housing dreams around the world-BBG
China pushes state banks accelerate funding private property developers-FT
Germany considers suspending debt brake as coalition cracks show-RTRS
ECB warns banks’ commercial real estate hits could worsen stress-BBG
Exports gain 2.2 pct during first 20 days of November-YNA
Hamas says Gaza hostage talks progress, could yield ‘truce’-BBG
A new front is opening up in the US-China conflict over chips-BBG 
OpenAI’s board approached anthropic about merger-INFO
Petrobras CEO replacement being discussed by Brazil officials-RTRS
Carlyle sells Mcdonald’s China stake for $1.8 billion-BBG
OpenAI investors, led by thrive, angle to bring back Altman-BBG
Uber boosts size of convertible bond issue to $1.5 billion-BBG
Airtel looks at $1-billion fundraise in move to repay spectrum dues-ECON
India closer to agreement with Tesla to import EVs, set up plant-BBG
Venezuela close to approving offshore gas license with Trinidad, Shell-RTRS
Appen in $25m equity raising; taps Barrenjoey-AFR
TotalEnergies, Sabic mull selling US chemical plant-BBG
OpenAI in ‘intense discussions’ to quell potential staff mutiny-BBG
Nvidia investors weigh risks from US’s China chip rules ahead of earnings-FT 

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Russia basks in the oil price comfort zone ahead of OPEC+-RTRS 2) IEA sees surplus oil supply in 2024 even if OPEC+ extends current cuts-RTRS 3) US crude oil bears risk reversal from crowded trade-RTRS 4) Impending African quota cuts to test OPEC unity amid volatility, falling prices-PLATTS 5) Middle East diesel exports to Europe slump on refinery disruptions, US supplies-PLATTS 6) US Coast Guard seeks source of some 1.1 million gallons of crude oil in Gulf of Mexico-RTRS

Original: Earnings Feed: Holiday Shortened Trading Week, Earnings Winding Down