Roller Coaster Oil Bear Market
A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq’s IR team.
| 1810: Russia is the first “emerging market” country to establish a stock market
| “bad news is good news” environment – how long is this sustainable?
| “Small CPI miss, big short squeeze” -Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau | markets have traveled far but gone nowhere over the last 2 years…
* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
|#UncertainTimes | Oil’s roller coaster ride…now in bear market
* source: CNBC
| #UncertainTimes | “The concentration of equity market returns this year has been extraordinarily high” -Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
| Valuations are not cheap… | Equal Weight = reduces impact of mega caps
* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
A contrarian’s market?
* source: BofA’s Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show
| Flows…weak and directionless across both bonds and equities?
* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
| “Delinquencies are climbing (now above pre-Covid levels for autos and credit cards), despite near record-low unemployment. So, when labor really cools as we slide into recession, credit is bound to worsen”
-Piper Sandler
* source: Piper Sandler
| Buybacks are dominating in Eurozone…
* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
| “slowing trends as we move toward year-end: deteriorating labor markets, weak manufacturing/capex, and worsening housing.” -Piper Sandler
“WORSENING HOUSING”
JOB MARKET softening
* source: Oxford Economics
Weak PMIs…
* source: Yardeni Research
| still some work left to bring inflation lower = 2% target…
* source: Deutsche Bank
1) KEY TAKEAWAYS
1) Equities + TYields MIXED | Dollar LOWER | Oil HIGHER
DJ +0.3% S&P500 +0.0% Nasdaq -0.1% R2K +0.8% Cdn TSX +0.5%
Stoxx Europe 600 +1.0% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 4.439%
Dollar HIGHER, Gold $1,962, WTI -1%, $77; Brent -1%, $82, Bitcoin $36,038
* source: CNBC
2) “even as manufacturing’s share has declined and fewer people work in the sector, IP has still risen significantly over the previous 60 years. That reflects a growing economy with rising productivity, so output has been increasing despite the fact there are fewer workers. Alongside that, we’ve of course had an increasing move to services.” -Deutsche Bank
* source: Deutsche Bank, Jim Reid
3) NEXT WEEK:
Global flash PMIs for November
“Other signals of whether economies are softening will include durable goods orders in the US, inflation in Japan, and sentiment gauges in Europe.
From central banks, the FOMC minutes will be high on investors’ agenda, as will the ECB’s account of their October meeting. In corporate earnings, the spotlight will be on Nvidia on Tuesday.” -Deutsche Bank
* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE
OFF TODAY
3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS
Fed’s Barr joins chorus warning on hedge funds’ basis trades-BBG
Fed’s Cook says she’s attuned to risk of sharp drop for economy-BBG
Three Fed governors tell US senator there is room reduce balance sheet-RTRS
BOJ’s Ueda says weak yen isn’t only negative for Japan’s economy-BBG
Explainer: How budget ruling will affect German finances, coalition-RTRS
Traders bet on ECB rate cuts next year-BBG
BOE rate-setters push back against market rate cut bets-BBG
BOJ will debate easy-policy exit when inflation nears target – Ueda-RTRS
US bond market functioning well amid volatility, New York Fed’s Perli says-RTRS
Euro zone yields two-month lows, markets price 100 bps rate cuts 2024-RTRS
Japan not targeting specific yen level in deciding when to intervene-RTRS
UK retail sales post surprise fall as rate hikes bite-BBG
German court ruling could hit economic growth next year – source-RTRS
Biden tells corporate leaders stable US-China ties benefit world-BBG
Xi pledges ‘heart-warming’ steps to attract foreign capital-BBG
EU leader Ursula von der Leyen urges states to begin economic de-riskingfrom China or face trouble-SCMP
Iran told US it did not want Israel-Hamas war to escalate-FT
China, Japan reaffirm ‘strategic relationship’ in rare leader talks-RTRS
China asks some big banks to cap rates on short-term funding-BBG
Google delays release of Gemini AI that aims to compete with OpenAI-INFO
Applied Materials under US criminal probe for shipments to China’s SMIC-RTRS
Jacobs poised to merge government consulting unit with Amentum-RTRS
Brookfield shelves sale of Center Parcs-FT
Adani Unit, ArcelorMittal, JSW in race to buy Vadraj Cement-ECON
National Bank stake sale oversubscribed – source-RTRS
Li Shufu’s Geely plans to sell $388 million Volvo Car stake-BBG
Hyundai Motor Group to replace heads of auto parts, steel units-KED
Gap earnings beat outshines bleak holiday-quarter sales forecast-MSN
Amazon reveals it will sell cars online next year-RW
Intel jumps to 17-month high after Mizuho analyst upgrade-RTRS
Boeing bonanza leaves rival Airbus with three times more aircraft orders-CNBC
Alibaba’s U-turn on cloud unit spin-off lops $20 bln off its market value-BT
Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Oil falls to lowest level since July ahead of Opec+ meeting-FT 2) Oil market suffers major blow, sliding into contango territory-WS 3) US oil prices slide as stocks accumulate at Cushing: Kemp-RTRS 4) Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rise in September-RTRS 5) US hits 3 UAE shipowners with sanctions for violating Russian oil price cap-FT 6) Almost all Russia’s oil sold above the price cap last month-BBG 7) US says all Venezuela sanctions are on table if Maduro Reneges-BBG