From Morningstar:

Investment managers and media are often surprised by unexpected events, or “black swans.” Morningstar Investment Management advises against seeking these unpredictable events, as they are rare and catastrophic. Investment banks and brokers are beginning to assess the accuracy of their forecasts, with average hit ratios around 63%.

Despite widespread predictions that Bitcoin and the crypto industry were on the brink of collapse, the opposite has occurred. The price of Bitcoin has risen 162% to $43,000 this year. Increased regulation may actually be a positive for the industry, potentially opening up fresh pools of capital and fostering greater consumer confidence.

The UK government narrowly avoided implosion this year, despite repeated scandals and a lack of political stability. Rishi Sunak managed to fulfill his pledge to halve inflation, but faced threats of being unseated by plotters from his own party. High drama is expected in the upcoming year at the ballot box.

China’s invasion of Taiwan was believed to be imminent, but fortunately did not materialize in 2023. The world now faces two seemingly intractable regional conflicts as the year draws to a close. The results of the February Taiwanese elections could be a turning point in US-China relations and the situation in the South China Sea.



Read more: 3 Things That Didn’t Happen in 2023