From Quiver Quantitative:

The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling in 2024, based on several regional Federal Reserve bank surveys. These surveys are precursors to the government’s monthly jobs report, indicating a notable reduction in hiring demand. Expectations for December payroll increase are 170,000, and future forecasts predict a gradual slowdown in job growth.

Surveys from various Federal Reserve districts reflect frailer employment expectations, potentially meaning a labor market adjusting to a new equilibrium. For example, the Dallas Fed forecasts annual wage growth to slow to about 4.3% in 2024. Furthermore, the Kansas City Fed’s district reports three-year low wage expectations.



Read more: Fed Surveys Predicts Reduced Hiring