Investment and Production Plans: Micron is focused on supporting the growth of its HBM business and is excited about its leading-edge product, HBM3E, which is considered the most advanced in the industry. They plan to start production ramp in early 2024 with revenue growth expected to be more back half loaded​​.

Qualification and Revenue Expectations: Micron is in the final stages of qualifying its HBM3E for use in NVIDIA’s next-generation platforms. They are on track to begin volume production ramp in early 2024 and expect to generate several hundred millions of dollars of HBM revenue in fiscal 2024. Continued growth in HBM revenue is anticipated for 2025, with expectations that their HBM market share will match their overall DRAM bit share by 2025​​.

CapEx Projections and Supply Constraints: Micron’s fiscal 2024 CapEx is projected to be between $7.5 billion and $8 billion, slightly higher than last year, primarily to support HBM3E production ramp. The ramp of HBM production is expected to constrain supply growth in non-HBM products, thereby improving the overall DRAM industry supply-demand balance​​.

Customer Feedback and Performance Metrics: Micron has received positive feedback on its HBM3E, which reportedly has 10% better performance and about 30% lower power consumption compared to competitive offerings. Samples of HBM3E have been shipped to key partners, and qualifications are progressing well​​.

Market Growth Projections: HBM’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be over 50% for the next few years, significantly higher than the DRAM industry CAGR. 2023 is noted as the first year of meaningful HBM shipments in the industry​​​​.

Supply and Demand Management: Micron plans to manage HBM demand and supply prudently, aiming to align their HBM share with their DRAM share by 2025. The company is positioned well with its product and looks forward to growing revenue and profit contribution from this line over the next few years​​.

Profitability and Margin Considerations: HBM is highlighted as having higher revenue per gigabyte and higher profitability per gigabyte compared to other products. The company is focused on maintaining profitability and disciplined CapEx investments in this area​​.

HBM plays crucial role in AI servers from the likes of NVDA, the integration of HBM in AI servers significantly enhances their ability to handle complex, data-intensive tasks. This shows us that micron is positioned to benefit from the growth in AI in the coming years.