Down 7% Since 2023, Can Starbucks’ Stock Reverse This Trend Post Q1 Results?

From Nasdaq:

Starbucks stock (NASDAQ: SBUX) is set to release its Q1 2024 results on January 30. Revenues from fiscal year 2023 were 35% higher than 2019, and operating margin grew 900 basis points during this time. Despite rising interest rates, comp sales grew in fiscal year 2023 and Starbucks predicts 5%-7% growth in comp sales in fiscal year 2024.

Trefis predicts Q1 2024 revenues to reach $9 billion, slightly beating consensus estimates. Starbucks ended fiscal year 2023 with over 38,000 stores globally, expecting to grow to over 50,000 stores by 2030. The question remains whether Starbucks can continue to expand with such a ubiquitous presence.

Starbucks’ EPS for Q1 2024 is forecasted at 90 cents, 5% above the consensus estimate, and up 26% from fiscal year 2023. Given Trefis’ valuation, the expected price is $102, 10% higher than the current market price.

It’s crucial to compare Starbucks against its peers. Returns for Starbucks and its peers show that Starbucks has a total return of 67% from 2017-2024, whereas the S&P 500 has a 119% total return during the same period.



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