Maersk Red Sea pause shows Operation Prosperity Guardian limits

From CNBC:

A Danish shipping company, Maersk, pauses transits of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden after an attack by Houthi militants. The threat has led to an increase in shipping bypassing the Red Sea, affecting $225 billion worth of trade and impacting 330 vessels.

The number of ships avoiding the Red Sea has jumped from 55 to 124 in a week. The situation has led to a modest increase in container ships in the Red Sea, but a consistent downward trend in traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian will require a great deal of naval coordination to be successful, according to U.S. Navy Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery. The coalition will need to use a strategy of deterrence to prevent further attacks by Houthi militants.

The U.S. Navy’s leadership in the coalition has led to some tension, with other countries wanting to protect companies from their own nation. However, The U.S. has been branding coalition task forces for 30 years and is the sole guarantor of free and open trade, according to Montgomery.

Operators are making case-by-case decisions about whether to go through the Red Sea and Egypt’s Suez Canal. Many carriers are choosing the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope to ensure the safety of crews and cargo, according to Goetz Alebrand, head of ocean freight at DHL Global Forwarding.



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