From MarketWatch:

The world economy in 2024 will be defined by certain trends, including trade and economic realignment, stagflation, and volatility. China’s de-risking strategy and growing tensions with the U.S. will have significant global ramifications. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine will continue to create security concerns and disrupt global supply chains. The potential for higher energy prices due to increased demand in 2024 also poses economic challenges. Overall, the economic and geopolitical landscape of the coming year will be shaped by these crucial issues.

China’s de-risking strategy and the potential impact on the global economy will continue to be a major issue in 2024. The Chinese government is working to attract investment from abroad but faces challenges due to liquidity issues and the need for more control over the national economy. If China fails to liberalize, India may benefit and emerge as a global economic power.

With presidential elections in both Russia and the U.S., and European elections for the European Parliament in 2024, negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war may be limited. Western countries will need to support Ukraine while facing budget constraints and the need to prioritize defense needs over rebuilding. The conflict in Ukraine also raises concerns about global supply chain disruptions.

Global supply chains are vulnerable to disruption, particularly due to conflicts like the recent violence in Israel and potential disruptions to oil supplies. The conflict between Hamas and Israel raises concerns about global oil supplies and whether it will draw in Iran or other producers. High energy prices may lead to higher food prices and increased demand, adding pressure on energy prices in 2024. The rise in global conflicts will accelerate the push towards de-globalization and reshoring of supply chains.



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