Treasury curve is un-inverting for reasons unrelated to recession prospects
From Dow Jones & Company:
The 2-year yield fell to 4.16% while the 10-year rate was at 3.96%, resulting in a 2s10s spread briefly touching minus 18.8 basis points – the least negative level since Nov. 1. The Treasury curve showed signs of disinversion, indicating less negativity as a U.S. recession approaches, attributed more to disinflation than rate-cut expectations. Bull-steepening trades drove the 2-year yield down more than the 10-year yield on Friday. The 2y/10y spread fell into triple-digit negative territory early in 2023. Fed funds trading suggests the market isn’t expecting a U.S. recession currently.
Read more: Treasury curve is un-inverting for reasons unrelated to recession prospects