From Dow Jones & Company:

According to Ned Davis Research, yields on the 10-year Treasury note have historically dropped in the three months leading up to the Fed’s first rate cut during an easing cycle. The mean decline has been 90 basis points, with the current 3-month yield at 3.95%. Stocks have seen relatively flat performance during this time period. Fed-funds futures traders backed off expectations for a March rate cut, pricing in a 66.4% probability. Traders have also priced in nearly 60% probability the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point at least six times over the course of 2024…There are concerns that six rate cuts would indicate a tougher economic scenario than the soft landing used to justify the 2023 rally.



Read more: What history says about stocks and the bond market ahead of a first Fed rate cut