From Yahoo Finance.:

Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist predicts a hard landing for the US economy due to the full impacts of Fed tightening not yet being felt. Economists say it could take 18 months after the last rate hike to fully experience the effects of higher rates. High rates are blamed for a coming recession, despite market expectations of the Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy. Signs of stress are evident in the financial system, with corporate defaults at their highest since the pandemic and bank lending decreasing for three consecutive quarters. Inflation remains a concern as consumer prices rose 3.1% year-over-year in January, with potential reacceleration in the first quarter. Markets are now pricing in a 39% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points or more by year-end.



Read more at Yahoo Finance.: A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist says