Daily Markets: Deutsche Bank Economists Update Outlook to Growth from Mild Recession

From Nasdaq:

In Asia-Pacific equity markets, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.53%, Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries and South Korea’s KOSPI each declined close to 0.60%, and India’s SENSEX gained 0.63%. Chinese state investment fund boosts sentiment as Shanghai Composite rises 3.23%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed 4.04% higher. European markets mixed, U.S. equity futures suggest a modestly down open.

Deutsche Bank’s U.S. economists updated outlook to no longer expect a mild recession in 1H 2024. First rate cut expected in June with a total of 100bps this year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker to speak today. Focus on 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar index to gauge market reaction.

Chinese government expected to take forceful action to prop up financial markets. Euro Area retail sales dropped by 0.8% YoY in December, marking the 15th consecutive month of contraction. No major economic reports today but three Fed officials making rounds. Materials and Utilities lead sector decline. Estee Lauder sees shares bid up 12.05% after strong earnings. Major market indicators YTD: Dow Jones: 1.83%, S&P 500: 3.63%, Nasdaq: 3.91%, Russell 2000: -4.43%.

AGCO, Check Point Software, Cummins, DuPont, Eli Lilly, Hertz Global, Linde plc, and Spotify to release quarterly earnings today. Pre-market breadth slightly lower. FMC Corporation to open almost 15% below yesterday’s close. Palantir, Coherent, NXP Semiconductors report strong earnings. Chegg under pressure after providing weak guidance.

Snap plans for a 10% workforce reduction. Reports indicate Boeing’s largest union will demand a 40% pay raise. Alphabet seeks outside investment for Wi-Fi and internet service. Blackstone considering bid for L’Occitane International. Honda recalling over 750,000 vehicles in U.S. Tencent working on mobile version of Elden Ring. Three IPO offerings this week – American Healthcare REIT, Kyverna Therapeutics, and Fortega Group.

Amgen, Cava Group, Chipotle, Cirrus Logic, e.l.f. Beauty, Ford, Fortinet, Snap, VF Corp., and Yum China to report quarterly results after equities stop trading. Eurozone Consumer Inflation Expectations and US Consumer Credit due Wednesday. China Inflation Rate and Producer Price Index due Thursday.



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