Economist David Rosenberg Says Recession Hiding In UPS Earnings: ‘Tough To Buy Into That Q4 Government-Massaged GDP Data’

From Nasdaq:

Economists are concerned about a recession even as the economy shows remarkable growth. UPS reports a revenue decline, prompting the company to cut 12,000 jobs to save $1 billion in 2024. United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) expects a revenue of $92 billion-$94.5 billion in 2024. Economist David Rosenberg noted that the strong GDP growth may not be entirely credible due to the contraction in shipping volumes.

Inflation eased to 3.4% in December 2023 after reaching a cycle peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.50% for a fourth straight meeting. The iShares Transportation Average ETF (CBOE: IYT) ended Wednesday’s session down 1.57% at $258.22.

Economist David Rosenberg noted that the robust GDP growth doesn’t look credible due to the contraction in shipping volumes. A preliminary fourth-quarter GDP report showed that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 3.3%. However, consumer spending and exports contributed to growth, while imports served as a drag. Rosenberg’s claim about the transportation sector cannot be completely shrugged off. Transportation is considered a leading indicator of economic growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell decided to pause interest rates at the current level for a fourth straight meeting, causing the iShares Transportation Average ETF (CBOE: IYT) to end Wednesday’s session down 1.57% at $258.22.

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