February 2024 Review and Outlook

From Nasdaq:

In February, all major indices hit new 52-week highs, with the S&P 500 surpassing 5000 for the first time. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 was reported at 4%, marking the second consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. January inflation data was higher than expected, leading to adjusted Fed rate cut expectations for June.

Markets closed out February on a high note, with U.S. equity indices hitting record levels. Tech stocks led the charge, with NVIDIA seeing a 28% increase in February alone. The Fed’s stance on rate cuts shifted to a June liftoff, with investors expecting three 25bps cuts by 2024, aligning with December guidance.

Earnings season saw better-than-expected results for large-cap companies, with 73% of S&P 500 members beating projections. SMID names, however, are facing an earnings recession. Small-cap earnings are expected to remain in a downturn, with over half of sectors showing negative growth, mainly due to higher floating rate debt impacting margins.

Economic indicators in January included strong job creation, rising wages, and higher than anticipated inflation. The U.S. Department of Labor’s employment report showed better-than-expected numbers, while CPI and PPI both ran hot. Despite some weak areas like retail sales and jobless claims, the economic outlook remains stable.

Oil futures rose over 3% in February, driven by geopolitical concerns and potential OPEC+ production cuts. Despite this gain, oil prices have declined since September. The energy sector continues to face uncertainties, impacting pricing and production. Investment in oil remains cautious amid ongoing global challenges.



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