From Investing.com: 2024-04-30 08:14:00

The latest modeling of recession risk in the US states’ economies shows that initial warning signs turned out to be noise. Despite the temptation to rely on only one or two indicators, history suggests a diversified indicator approach is more reliable. A state economic indicator model suggested a high risk of recession in early 2024 but lacked confirmation in various business-cycle indexes. Estimating recession risk in real-time is challenging due to the complexity of the economy. By using a diversified set of indicators, it is possible to develop high-confidence estimates of economic trends. Currently, US recession risk is low, with a probability of only 1% according to the Composite Recession Probability Index (CRPI). CRPI, which did not signal a recession in the late-2022 slowdown, focuses on maximizing signals and minimizing noise, making it a more reliable indicator than others.



Read more at Investing.com: Recession Warning Via States’ Economies Was a False Alarm