From Investing.com: 2024-05-09 07:32:00

Monitoring recession risk is essential through a variety of indicators, with a focus on the labor market as a key driver of economic strength. A particular measure indicating trouble is brewing, with a negative one-year change since last summer. This signals an imminent recession, although caution is advised as no indicator is flawless. The Composite Recession Probability Index estimates low recession risk as of May 3, but the labor market indicator could be a genuine warning of rising recession risk. It’s important to monitor a wide variety of metrics to get a clear and reliable signal, with July being the earliest for a potential recession indicator.



Read more at Investing.com: Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked: Recession to Follow Soon?