Airfinity reduces US RSV vaccine market estimate to $1.7bn by 2030

From GlobeNewswire: 2024-07-24 02:00:00

Airfinity has reduced its sales projections for RSV vaccines for older adults in the US from $4.7bn to $1.7bn by 2030. Following ACIP recommendations, the vaccine will now be offered as a single lifetime dose only for older adults. Revenues in the US totaled $2.4bn in 2023, expected to decline slightly to $2.2bn in 2024. The new recommendations narrow the age eligibility criteria, reducing the estimated eligible population by 44%.

ACIP delayed the recommendation for high-risk 50-59 year-olds to receive the RSV vaccine in 2024, resulting in an estimated loss of $300mn in revenue for GSK. Before the new recommendations, everyone aged 60 and above in the US was offered the vaccine; the new guidelines are narrowed to those over 75 years and high-risk individuals over 60 years, reducing the estimated eligible population by 44%.

Before the new recommendations, Airfinity estimated the US market for RSV vaccines would generate $4.7bn annually by 2030. However, new data shows that revaccination after 12 months does not increase efficacy compared to a single dose. Future dosing recommendations could change based on long-term data, potentially increasing the US market value to $6.6bn or $5.2bn with booster doses every two or three years, respectively.

Airfinity projects that ACIP recommendations may limit revenue growth in the US market without new data supporting booster shots. GSK is likely to capture the majority of the market due to promising efficacy and durability. The US market share remains uncertain, with different scenarios possible for revenue distribution among vaccine manufacturers. Moderna’s vaccine may be favored by some healthcare providers if safety data improves, despite lower durability.

Airfinity plans to update estimates as new data becomes available. All rights to the information published belong to Airfinity and should not be reproduced or distributed without a valid license. The data is provided as-is and should not be considered as advice. Airfinity disclaims liability for any errors or omissions in the information. No warranty is given, and Airfinity is not regulated by any financial authority.



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