Potential economic impacts of 2024 election, including labor supply, trade policy, taxes, and tech antitrust.

From Investing.com: 2024-07-06 03:01:01

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is drawing near, with potential impacts on macroeconomics and policy under scrutiny by investors and analysts. President Biden’s pro-immigration stance has boosted labor supply and consumer demand, benefiting job growth and housing vacancy rates. In contrast, Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric could lead to economic setbacks.

Trade policy varies between the candidates, with Biden maintaining existing tariffs on Chinese imports while Trump proposes even harsher measures. Both have implications for economic growth and market stability, but with different approaches to trade disputes and policy uncertainty.

Fiscal differences between Biden and Trump are stark, with Biden planning to raise corporate taxes and revert to higher rates for top earners. Trump’s plans are less detailed, but aim to extend tax cuts and potentially introduce new ones across income brackets. Revenue sources and tax priorities diverge significantly between the two candidates.

Under Trump, industrial policy, particularly relating to green initiatives, may face opposition that could hinder investments in semiconductor and clean tech manufacturing. However, potential risks to these green policies are seen as manageable under a Trump administration, with some IRA and CHIPS Act support likely to persist despite potential challenges.

Antitrust policies could see significant changes depending on the election outcome, with Biden’s administration taking a more aggressive approach towards major tech companies. A second Trump administration may adopt a more lenient stance on antitrust enforcement, potentially impacting competition in the tech industry and labor income distribution.

Despite potential policy shifts, the labor share of income remains low, indicating that industrial trends won’t drastically change based solely on the election outcome. The impact of different policies on labor income suggests that broader economic shifts are influenced by various factors beyond presidential administrations.



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