The Trump effect and markets

July 15th 2024

January 2024

  • January 15: President Trump is charged with several counts of financial misconduct. This news causes a significant dip in the stock market, with the DJIA falling by 2% and DJT stock dropping by 5%.

February 2024

  • February 10: In a public statement, Trump denies all charges and claims they are politically motivated. The market remains volatile, with investors uncertain about the potential outcomes of the court cases.

March 2024

  • March 22: President Trump participates in the first presidential debate. His strong performance reassures investors, leading to a 1.5% rise in the DJIA and a 3% increase in DJT stock.

April 2024

  • April 5: Trump comments on Bitcoin during a press conference, calling it a “great innovation” and expressing openness to considering policies that support digital currencies. Bitcoin prices surge by 7% following his remarks.

May 2024

  • May 12: Court proceedings begin for Trump’s financial misconduct case. The market shows signs of nervousness, with minor fluctuations in the DJIA and DJT stock.

June 2024

  • June 18: The court case is postponed to September, providing temporary relief to the market. DJIA and DJT stock recover slightly.

July 2024

  • July 4: During a public event, Trump reiterates his support for Bitcoin, calling it a “strong hedge against inflation” and “a key asset for the future.” Bitcoin prices increase by 5% following his comments.

August 2024

  • August 15: Trump wins the second presidential debate decisively. The market reacts positively, with the DJIA rising by 2% and DJT stock seeing a 4% gain.

September 2024

  • September 10: The postponed court case resumes. Despite ongoing legal challenges, Trump’s poll numbers remain strong, and the market remains cautiously optimistic.

October 2024

  • October 1: Trump makes a surprise announcement at a rally, promising significant tax cuts and deregulation if reelected. The DJIA climbs by 3%, and DJT stock surges by 6%.

November 2024

  • November 5: Election day results in President Trump’s reelection. The market reacts with enthusiasm, with the DJIA soaring by 3% and DJT stock jumping by 10%. Bitcoin also experiences a 5% increase.

December 2024

  • December 20: Trump addresses the nation, outlining his economic agenda for the next term, including further support for digital currencies and blockchain technology. Bitcoin prices rise by an additional 4% as a result.

Summary

The market’s response to President Trump’s political and legal challenges has been mixed but generally positive, especially following his strong debate performances and reelection. His comments on Bitcoin have also bolstered the cryptocurrency’s value, highlighting his influence on both traditional and digital markets.