Oil: Path of Least Resistance Remains to the Downside Amid China Concerns, Fed

From Investing.com: 2024-09-16 06:26:00

Oil futures ended a 4-week losing streak last week with a small gain, mainly due to hurricane disruptions. However, concerns about weak demand growth in China and the Eurozone persist, with agencies like the International Energy Administration and OPEC lowering their demand forecasts. Weak Chinese data, including a 10% drop in refinery processing and a surge in crude oil inventories, adds to these concerns.

Chinese economic data from August revealed a 4.5% industrial output growth, below expectations, and a decline in fixed asset investment growth to 3.4%. Home prices also dropped significantly, with new home prices falling by 0.73% month-on-month, the steepest decline this year.

Rig counts in the US reached the highest level since June, indicating rising drilling activity and potential for increased oil supply. Speculators are turning bearish on the market, with a significant sell-off in ICE Brent contracts and a net short position established.

WTI technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, with lower highs and lower lows. The 21-day exponential moving average is below the 200-day simple moving average, indicating a downside bias. The current resistance level is between $70.00 and $71.80, with potential for a further drop below last week’s low of $65.27.

Disclaimer added at the end of the article states that it is for informational purposes only and not meant to be investment advice or a solicitation to purchase assets.



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