From CNBC: 2024-11-05 19:42:59

Treasury yields rose as investors awaited results from the tight presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The 10-year Treasury yield traded 5 basis points higher at 4.34%, with potential for a big pop in the event of a Trump win. Yields may approach 4.5% or fall toward 4% depending on the outcome.

Bond yields could see a significant surge in the event of a Republican sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. The bond market may react to potential tax cuts and steep tariffs, raising concerns about fiscal deficit and inflation. Investors may demand higher yields as the government issues more debt to fund spending.

A Harris administration with a divided Congress could prompt bond yields to retreat. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, the largest monthly increase since September 2022. The Federal Reserve is expected to make a decision on interest rates soon, with a potential quarter-point rate cut anticipated.

Read more: 10-year Treasury yield rises with all eyes on the U.S. election