Stocks fell in October amid election and geopolitical uncertainty, mixed economic signals

From Nasdaq: 2024-11-04 11:15:56

In October, major averages closed lower, below all-time highs. Election and geopolitical headlines remained prominent, while mixed economic signals kept investors cautious. Earnings season reached mid-point with varied results. Gold continued to rise despite Fed rate cut.

Stocks fell in October, ending S&P 500’s five-month streak of gains. Nasdaq Composite had its first monthly drop in three months. Semiconductors led declines, while treasuries saw significant declines with yields rising sharply. Dollar index rose 3.1%, gold continued upward trend, Bitcoin and WTI crude oil also saw gains.

Focus in October was on Treasury yield increase, with largest selloff since 2022. Bond market volatility surged, impacting both Treasuries and equities. Economic data showed mixed signals, with strong labor market signals but some softening indicators. Market sentiment impacted by upcoming election, increasing political uncertainty.

With 70% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3’24 earnings, results were mixed. 52% beat revenue estimates, 30% missed, 18% matched. EPS reports showed companies beat nearly 75% of the time, below 5-year average. Health Care and Financials stocks reported largest top line and EPS upside surprises.

Looking ahead, November 2024 will be crucial with election and FOMC meeting expected to cut rates. Economic data throughout the month will impact Fed’s December meeting. November historically best month for stocks, with average S&P 500 return of 3.81% over last 10 years. Bulls aim to regain control for new all-time highs.



Read more at Nasdaq:: October 2024 Review and Outlook