From Morningstar: 2024-11-15 04:50:45

UK inflation is expected to rise in October, with the Consumer Price Index forecasted to reach 2.2%, above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Core inflation is expected to fall to 3.1%. Factors include higher government spending, borrowing, and tax rises. The impact of the US election and Ofgem price cap lift will also be reflected in the data.

The recent Budget and Bank of England interest rate cut have added to inflationary pressures, with fiscal measures predicted to boost CPI by 0.50 percentage points and GDP by 0.75 percentage points. Inflation has been on a downward trend globally, but central banks remain cautious. Tougher comparisons to 2023 could lead to rising inflation in 2025.

In 2024, UK CPI has decreased from 4% in January to 1.7% in September, prompting rate cuts by the Bank of England. Globally, inflation remains subdued, but policymakers are vigilant. The pound is trading at $1.27 and €1.20, impacted by the US election and global economic factors. A stronger pound affects imports and exports, particularly food and energy prices.



Read more at Morningstar: UK Inflation: What to Expect from October’s Data