From Financial Modeling Prep: 2024-12-03 00:32:32

JPMorgan analysts foresee a turbulent year for metals markets, starting with weakness due to U.S. tariff concerns on Chinese goods. However, a robust recovery is expected in the second quarter, driven by Chinese economic stimulus measures. This outlook presents opportunities for investors amidst potential market volatility.

In the short term, base metal prices may face downward pressure in early 2025 due to tariff uncertainties and a weakened Chinese yuan. Investor sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions impact global trade.

From the second quarter onwards, a recovery is expected in base metals, with copper projected to hit $10,400/mt, aluminum to rise to $2,850/mt, zinc prices stabilizing, and nickel facing continued pressure at around $16,000/mt due to oversupply.

For precious metals, JPMorgan forecasts a bullish outlook in 2025, with gold expected to surge to $3,000/oz, silver to reach $38/oz, and platinum to rally to $1,200/oz due to market stabilization and supply constraints.

Improving fundamentals in the iron ore market are highlighted by JPMorgan, with Chinese steel demand driving prices to $100/ton in 2025. Long-term outlook suggests prices moderating to $80/ton due to increased supply from major producers.

Key risks to the forecast include U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the scale of Chinese economic stimulus measures, and changes in global supply dynamics from major mining firms. Investors should monitor these factors closely.

JPMorgan’s outlook for 2025 presents challenges and opportunities for metals investors. While short-term uncertainties persist, a strong recovery driven by Chinese stimulus and supply-demand dynamics could lead to a profitable year. Vigilance and market insights are key for navigating this complex environment effectively.



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