From Morningstar: 2024-12-20 12:04:36

Novo Nordisk reported top-line data from the Redefine 1 study, showing 20.4% placebo-adjusted weight loss for CagriSema in obese patients after 68 weeks, disappointing investors and causing a 20% drop in shares. Novo faces competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which had similar results and showed superiority over Novo’s Wegovy.

Novo’s patent protection for Wegovy extends to 2032, but Medicare negotiations could start in 2027, prompting the need for new obesity drugs for long-term growth. The Redefine 1 study allowed dose adjustments, affecting CagriSema’s efficacy. Novo aims to maintain its market share against Lilly and innovate new obesity treatments.

Analysts maintain Novo Nordisk’s fair value estimate at $86 per share, citing the company’s solid pipeline and history of innovation in cardiometabolic diseases. The rivalry between Novo and Lilly in the obesity market is expected to continue with significant pipeline data anticipated in 2025, including phase 3 trials and head-to-head studies between their respective drugs. Lilly’s Zepbound may also be approved for sleep apnea, expanding its market reach.



Read more at Morningstar: Novo Nordisk: Shares Look Fairly Valued After…