• Citigroup: 6,500 (Base case; bull case: 6,900, bear case: 5,100)
  • Key drivers: +13% earnings growth, AI-driven productivity, stable macro trends.
  • Strategy: Leverage pullbacks for diversification into underperforming sectors and mid-caps.
• Oppenheimer: 7,100
  • Key drivers: Economic resilience, earnings growth in tech/healthcare/renewables, potential Fed rate cuts.
• BofA Global Research: 6,666
  • Key drivers: US outpacing developed economies in economic/earnings growth.
• UBS: 6,600
  • Reflects a 10% gain, indicating moderate optimism.
• Wells Fargo: 7,007
  • Key driver: Upgraded forecast based on stronger equity performance outlook.
• Yardeni Research: 7,000
• Deutsche Bank: 7,000

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Key Themes Across Forecasts:

• Earnings Growth: Broad consensus on robust earnings growth, driven by technology, healthcare, and AI-related gains.
• Volatility: Higher market volatility expected in 2025 due to valuation risks and policy uncertainties.
• Broader Rally: Optimism for a potential market rally beyond the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.
• Fed Policy: Potential rate cuts could boost valuations and market sentiment.

Overall, while forecasts differ slightly, they reflect a bullish consensus on the S&P 500’s trajectory into 2025, with targets largely clustered between 6,500 and 7,100.