Market Week Ahead: Inflation, Earnings, Oil, and Global Developments

From Financial Modeling Prep: 2025-01-13 04:54:57

Inflation remains a key focus as U.S. CPI data is expected to show a 2.9% year-over-year increase, delaying rate cut expectations to June 2025. UK inflation forecasted at 2.6% YoY, with rising gilt yields reflecting skepticism over future BoE rate cuts.

Earnings season kicks off with major banks reporting Q4 results, driven by robust investment banking fees and positive outlook on deregulation and tax reforms. S&P 500 companies expected to post 10% YoY earnings growth.

China’s economic update includes GDP data confirming 5% annual growth for 2024, with key releases on industrial production, retail sales, and housing prices. Policy context highlights Beijing’s capacity for increased fiscal spending amid U.S. tariff tensions.

Oil market dynamics see Brent crude crossing $80 per barrel due to comprehensive sanctions on Russian oil by the Biden administration. Analysts expect Trump to leverage sanctions for a Ukraine peace treaty.

Investors should watch for equity market sensitivity to inflation readings, Fed policy, and earnings expectations. Global policy implications include tariff risks under the Trump administration and ongoing skepticism toward UK fiscal policy outcomes. Energy sector offers opportunities amid oil price volatility and supply disruptions.



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