Investment firm Yardeni Research reevaluating market scenarios based on geopolitical concerns and economic data.

From Investing.com: 2025-01-27 02:26:00

Investment firm Yardeni Research regularly evaluates three scenarios for the future: a Roaring 2020s (55% probability), a Meltup 1990s (25% probability), and a Stagflationary 1970s (20% probability). Concerns about geopolitical crises causing oil price spikes have been present since early 2022, influencing the firm’s assessments. Despite tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices have remained stable. Recent tariff hikes by the Trump administration, particularly targeting China, could impact global trade and China’s economy. However, the possibility of a US debt crisis appears less imminent based on recent data. The firm is considering adjusting probabilities for bearish scenarios, potentially increasing the likelihood of a market “melt-up” scenario, with continued bullish outlook for stock markets.



Read more at Investing.com: Time to Recalibrate Our 3 Market Scenarios?