From Financial Modeling Prep: 2025-02-11 01:25:11

Investors are debating whether a Trump re-election in 2024 will spark a stock market boom like in 2017. JPMorgan warns that today’s economic landscape differs significantly from Trump’s first term, potentially impacting market trajectories. Global growth was stronger in 2017, with China’s stimulus driving emerging market recovery and outperforming the S&P 500.

Currently, the U.S. is surpassing Europe in growth, and China’s recovery post-COVID remains fragile. This may lead to continued U.S. equity dominance over emerging markets. The trajectory of the U.S. dollar is uncertain, with trade tensions and interest rates potentially strengthening the USD, unlike in 2017.

Trade war risks loom larger now compared to 2017, as Trump hints at imposing tariffs on China and Europe, which could disrupt global markets and raise inflation concerns. Trade uncertainty may limit sector and regional shifts seen in 2017. Bond yields and fiscal deficits are higher today, potentially restricting economic growth and market enthusiasm, particularly in tech and rate-sensitive sectors.

Investors should note that growth leadership remains U.S.-centric, the U.S. dollar’s path is uncertain, and bond yields are elevated with ongoing fiscal concerns. Potential trade conflicts could strengthen the dollar, affecting risk assets. Stay informed with Financial Modeling Prep’s APIs for real-time market data and economic trends.



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