From Financial Modeling Prep: 2025-03-11 03:18:09

Evercore ISI analysts warn of potential stagflation risks for the S&P 500, projecting a base case of 6,800 by 2025. However, a scenario with GDP slowing below 1.5% and core PCE inflation above 3% could drive the index down to 5,200. Tariffs and DOGE uncertainty may exacerbate these risks, impacting GDP and core PCE.

Historically, the S&P 500 falls about 10% annually during stagflation. Evercore maintains a year-end target of 6,800 but cautions that a break below 5,700 could signal more severe risks. Energy and defensive sectors may outperform, while earnings growth could stagnate. Evercore recommends adjusting asset allocation to underweight equities and upgrade fixed income and cash positions.

Amidst uncertainty, Evercore suggests taking advantage of market volatility by purchasing stocks during high VIX and options during low VIX. Long-term focus on AI-related sectors is advised. Utilizing the Earnings Calendar API for economic updates and the Up/Down Grades API for analyst sentiment can provide valuable insights into market dynamics during uncertain times.

In conclusion, Evercore’s base case of 6,800 for the S&P 500 remains optimistic, but the looming risk of stagflation and economic pressures requires caution. Investors should monitor policy changes and adjust portfolios accordingly to navigate the evolving market conditions.



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