From Financial Modeling Prep: 2025-03-31 06:58:00

As Q1 2025 ends, the S&P 500 is set for its first quarterly decline since Q3 2023. Goldman Sachs anticipates two key policy changes in early April that could impact market dynamics for the year ahead.

President Trump plans to announce new tariffs on April 2, potentially raising the U.S. tariff rate to 13%, the highest since 1938. Each 5% tariff increase could reduce S&P 500 EPS by 1-2%.

The Fed is expected to slow its balance sheet runoff in April, with quantitative tightening set to end by Q3 2025. This tapering could ease equity risk premiums, but economic growth remains a crucial factor.

Goldman Sachs predicts the S&P 500 to remain flat in the next three months but rebound by 11% by year-end due to improving economic growth and earnings.

Investors are already navigating trade uncertainties, fears of an economic slowdown, and potential earnings pressure from rising tariffs. Monitoring market shifts and company performance will be crucial in the coming months.

The upcoming policy changes could have a lasting impact on market performance. Investors must closely watch economic forecasts and corporate earnings as tariff announcements and Fed tapering unfold.



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