From Yahoo Finance: 2025-04-06 13:00:00

Bitcoin had its worst first quarter in a decade, dropping 11.7% as markets grapple with the new administration’s economic plans. The performance ranked 12th out of the past 15 first quarters, according to NYDIG Research. The drawdown raises concerns about the cycle’s continuation, reminiscent of the 2015 slump following Mt. Gox’s collapse.

In Q1 2020, amid the COVID-19 sell-off, BTC saw a 9.4% drawdown but rebounded by over 300% by year-end. Years with negative Q1 returns like 2014, 2018, and 2022 saw bitcoin sharply down by year-end, aligning with previous bull cycle endings. The current backdrop is uncertain, despite regulatory progress under the Trump administration.

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs triggered a $5.4 trillion U.S. equities market loss in two days, pushing the S&P 500 to an 11-month low and the Nasdaq 100 into bear market territory. While bitcoin has performed well, uncertainty looms post-tariffs. How it fares post-Monday’s opening bell remains to be seen.

A weak Q1 historically doesn’t always spell disaster for BTC, with the asset rebounding in half of red-starting years. Analysts are raising recession odds, testing BTC’s role as a “U.S. isolation hedge.” Uncertainty surrounds BTC’s performance amid the current macroeconomic landscape.

Read more: Bitcoin Posts Worst Q1 in a Decade, Raising Questions About Where the Cycle Stands