From Yahoo Finance: 2025-04-15 15:21:00

U.S. Treasury yields are predicted to fall as bond strategists anticipate an economic slowdown due to President Trump’s tariffs, leading the Federal Reserve to potentially lower interest rates. The recent sell-off pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a near two-month high of 4.59%. Concerns about the market’s safe-haven status have arisen.

Despite a recent Treasury auction showing robust demand, major U.S. sell-side banks have raised concerns about the Treasury market’s stability. Over 50 bond strategists forecast the 10-year yield to decline to 4.21% by June and further to 4.14% in a year. The MOVE index, measuring market volatility, remains high.

Consumer inflation expectations, fueled by tariffs, have hit a 40-year high, limiting the Fed’s monetary policy options. Interest rate futures predict three rate cuts by the Fed this year, up from initial expectations. Bond market strategists are cautious, with many indicating risks to their yield forecasts are tilted upwards due to inflation concerns and fiscal policies.



Read more at Yahoo Finance: Bond strategists expect US yields to fall despite tariff turmoil