China set to leave lending rates steady, but tariffs raise easing bets

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-04-18 01:28:00

China is expected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. Analysts predict no changes to the loan prime rate (LPR), with most loans tied to the one-year rate. However, fears of a sharp economic downturn persist as U.S. tariffs loom large, prompting calls for monetary easing.

Despite GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter, concerns remain about the impact of U.S. tariffs on China’s economy. Export data has not fully reflected the effects of the trade war, with both countries imposing higher tariffs on each other. Market watchers anticipate monetary stimulus measures to counter the tariffs’ impact.

To support the economy and mitigate tariff effects, policymakers are considering easing measures. However, any stimulus actions must also consider the yuan’s stability, which has weakened since the announcement of global tariffs. Nomura forecasts potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and rate cuts in the second quarter, contingent on U.S.-China relations and market volatility.



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