Earnings Expectations Shift Lower: A Closer Look

From Nasdaq: 2025-04-30 18:20:00

Total Q1 earnings for the S&P 500 members are up +14.0% from last year, with 72.3% beating EPS estimates. Q2 earnings expected to grow by +7.0%, but estimates have been coming down. Full-year 2025 estimates have also been cut, with Tech, Energy, Finance, and Medical sectors seeing the most significant reductions.

Uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment is impacting earnings outlook. Companies struggle to provide guidance, with some like United Air Lines, A.O. Smith, and 3M offering different outlooks due to economic uncertainties. Negative revisions for 2025 Q2 and full-year 2025 estimates are broad-based, with Aerospace and Construction sectors experiencing slight positive revisions.

Tech sector earnings expected to rise by +11.7% in Q2, down from +14.2%, and +11.3% for full-year 2025, down from +12.1%. Estimates for sectors have been fluctuating, with Tech experiencing a significant negative trend recently. Overall, earnings expectations for S&P 500 index are getting adjusted lower amidst worries about economic growth momentum.

Earnings estimates for this year are being adjusted lower due to concerns about the economy’s growth momentum and the impact of tariffs. The negative GDP read for Q1 was influenced by anticipatory effects of trade levies. Estimates for the next two years remain steady, but this year’s projections are being revised downward.



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