From Financial Modeling Prep: 2025-04-23 02:36:00

UBS strategists predict global stocks may dip to early-2025 lows before a modest year-end recovery, with the MSCI AC World Index targeting 830. Risks include overoptimistic revenue forecasts, tight financial conditions, earnings downgrades, and a potential surge in Chinese exports impacting markets.

Current equity risk premium offers no cushion, with cyclical stocks overvalued compared to defensives. UBS suggests monitoring sector valuations through the Sector PE Ratio Market Overview API for historical context.

Scenarios for MSCI AC World range from a base case with a 10% tariff to a worst-case scenario of unchanged tariffs leading to a temporary dip. The blue-sky scenario envisions tariff rollbacks driving the index to 910. UBS assigns a 25% probability to a bear market.

Investors are advised to prepare for volatility, monitor policy signals, and adjust risk premia by considering defensive sectors if credit spreads widen. Selective cyclical additions during dips and staying informed on U.S.-China trade talks are recommended strategies.



Read more at Financial Modeling Prep:: Global Equities: Near-Term Lows Before a Year-End …