From Financial Modeling Prep: 2025-04-01 06:14:00

Goldman Sachs raises U.S. recession probability to 35% due to trade policy uncertainty, declining confidence, and lower growth baseline. Forecasts for 2025 adjusted with risks from aggressive reciprocal tariffs under President Trump.

Increased U.S. tariff assumptions by Goldman Sachs to 15% in 2025. Anticipated new tariffs may reach up to 20%, raising input costs and disrupting trade flows, impacting the economy negatively.

Forecast projects core PCE inflation to hit 3.5% by end of 2025, driven by higher tariffs. Economic growth forecast for 2025 revised down to 1% due to trade disruptions, weaker consumer spending, and reduced business confidence.

Goldman Sachs analysts note downgrade in growth expectations and worsening sentiment, reflecting White House’s acceptance of short-term weakness for long-term policy goals. Aggressive trade measures have significant economic consequences, highlighting the importance of monitoring key indicators.

Revised outlook by Goldman Sachs indicates a challenging economic landscape for the U.S. with heightened tariff policies and inflation risks increasing chances of recession and slower growth in the coming year.



Read more at Financial Modeling Prep:: Goldman Sachs Forecasts Elevated U.S. Recession Ri…