Goldman Sachs predicts oil price crash below $40 in extreme scenario

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-04-08 12:41:00

Oil prices are plummeting due to economic concerns and increased OPEC production. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent oil could drop below $40 by 2026. US oil production may struggle as prices near breakeven costs. Brent crude oil futures stand at $64, US WTI futures at $60, down 15% this year.

Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at $55, WTI at $51 by December 2026 if US avoids recession. In an extreme scenario with global GDP slowdown and OPEC+ cuts unwound, Brent could fall under $40 by late 2026. Oil prices are affected by macroeconomic changes. Prices tanked over 7% after Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+ supply increase.

US oil production could suffer as prices near breakeven costs. Trump’s energy agenda aims to boost US energy dominance, but an oil price crash may contradict this. Production costs in the US are higher than in the Middle East. Oil players may need to cut production, payouts, or preserve stockpiles to protect profit margins.

Trump’s policies, including steel tariffs affecting oil well construction, could hurt American oil firms. Policy unpredictability creates uncertainty for management teams. Rystad Energy warns of difficult operating conditions. US oil players must adapt to changing market dynamics to maintain profitability.



Read more at Yahoo Finance: Goldman Sachs warns that oil could crash under $40 in an ‘extreme’ scenario