From Cointelegraph

April 5, 2025 5:45 PM:

Traders on Kalshi predict 61% odds of a US recession in 2025 after Trump’s tariff order. Odds have doubled since March 20, aligning with Polymarket’s 60% prediction. Market fears a bear market due to executive order. Trump defends tariffs, claiming long-term benefits. Stock market loses $5 trillion in value.

Trump’s tariff order imposes 10% baseline rate, varying “reciprocal” rates on trading partners. Market sell-off wipes $5 trillion. Analysts fear prolonged trade war recession. Trump confident in tariffs to boost US economy. Market sell-off continues, shedding trillions. Pompliano suggests Trump crashing markets to lower interest rates.

Pompliano claims Trump is crashing markets to lower interest rates, pointing to decline in 10-year US Treasury bonds. Rates dropped from 4.66% in January to 4.00% in April. Trump pressures Powell to cut short-term rates. Market fears recession as trade war impacts global markets. Market sell-off continues, trillions lost.

Read more at Cointelegraph: Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%