Maersk's fair value estimated lowered due to tariffs and uncertainty

From Morningstar.: 2025-04-14 10:02:00

President Trump announced a 145% tariff on China and a 10% tariff on all other countries for 90 days, affecting Maersk shares which have dropped 22% this year due to policy uncertainty.

Chinese-US trade makes up 2%-3% of global trade, impacting Maersk with policy shifts potentially leading to volume and price retractions.

Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk’s fair value estimates are lowered to DKK 11,100, down 20% this year, with a potential 1.5%-2.5% global GDP reduction and a further decline in fair values due to decreased demand and freight rates.

Analysts predict a 40% downside if a long-term recession materializes, with Maersk suffering from tariff policies and potential volume reductions impacting fair values significantly.

Vessel supply concerns may affect global carriers’ performance, with the return to high levels of the order book seen in 2011 potentially impacting shipping prices.

Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea issues has kept shipping prices high, with Maersk estimating a $3 billion difference in earnings if the Suez Canal remains closed all year.

Bulls predict a 1%-2% volume drop through 2026, leading to a 12% decrease in fair value, while bears analyze Maersk during recent recessions, anticipating a 25% decrease in fair value if a short recession occurs and a 40% decrease in fair value if a long-term recession happens.



Read more at Morningstar.: Maersk: Lowering Fair Value on Tariffs Uncertainty