University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index low, but other measures show mixed signals

From Investing.com: 2025-04-14 03:25:00

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is at 50.8, below the average of 73.4 during recession periods. However, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure is at 92.9 for March, above the average of 75 during recessions. Using a probit regression, the estimated recession probability is low for April, but incorporating other data such as news sentiment, interest rates, and the VIX increases the probability to 77.6%. Nonfarm Payroll and civilian employment are up, while consumption is down and Q1 GDP is flat compared to Q4.



Read more at Investing.com: Michigan Economic Sentiment Signals Recession-Level Weakness