Stocks log worst 100 day start since Nixon as Trump injects semi-permanent uncertainty

From Yahoo Finance: 2025-04-29 14:37:00

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office saw the worst start for stocks since Nixon in 1973, driving market volatility and uncertainty. Concerns over tariffs affecting economic growth led to a 7.3% drop in the S&P 500. The dollar also slid about 9%, while Treasury market returns were the second highest in recent history.

Expectations for heightened volatility persist in stocks, bonds, and currencies as investors navigate a changing trade landscape. Despite some recovery, the S&P 500 saw a 7.1% drop in the first 100 days of Trump’s second term. The dollar’s decline reflects skepticism towards U.S. assets, with investors uncertain about the future.

Historically, poor market starts include Nixon’s second term and Bush’s first term. Analysts suggest that early declines could set the tone for Trump’s term. During Nixon’s second term, the S&P 500 dropped 9.7%, while under Bush, stocks fell 6.9%. Comparatively, Trump’s second term has seen more extreme declines than his first term.

The dollar’s 12% slump in Trump’s first year contrasts with its nearly equal fall in the first 100 days of his second term, driven by protectionist trade policies. Investors question the dollar’s role as a haven in economic uncertainty. Despite administration commitment to a strong dollar, analysts see U.S. policy as a negative factor.

Stocks gained 5% in Trump’s first term’s initial 100 days, rising 5.3% overall. Throughout his first term, stocks grew nearly 70% while the dollar fell 10%. However, investors anticipate a slowdown in the pace of administration activity as focus shifts to tax cuts. Market activity may ease as the administration moves into longer-term projects.

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