From CNBC: 2025-04-01 16:03:00

President Donald Trump believes tariffs will make the U.S. rich, but economists predict the revenue will fall short of White House expectations. Trade adviser Peter Navarro estimates tariffs could raise $600 billion yearly, but economists project a lower total. Details on upcoming tariffs against U.S. trading partners are forthcoming.

The White House is considering a 20% tariff on most imports, potentially aligning with revenue projections. Economists estimate a broad tariff would raise $250 billion annually. However, factors like reduced consumer demand due to higher prices could impact revenue. Potential trade war retaliation may further complicate the economic landscape.

Tariffs are expected to raise prices for consumers and trigger reduced economic activity, impacting company profits and tax revenues. Foreign nations may retaliate with tariffs on U.S. products, leading to layoffs and economic downturns. Non-compliance, carve-outs, and relief payments are also likely outcomes. The short lifespan of tariffs may limit their revenue impact.

Read more: Tariffs may raise much less than White House projects, economists say