From Yahoo Finance: 2025-04-02 10:03:00

Investors should prepare for a leaner stock market and economy as Trump tariffs and retaliations from trading partners like Canada, Europe, and China take hold, according to BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin. Berezin predicts a 75% chance of a US recession this year due to a global trade war.

BCA Research, an independent firm since 1942, employs Berezin, who correctly predicted no US recession in 2022. He now forecasts a mild recession in the US with slight negative economic growth as consumers pull back in an inflationary environment due to the trade war.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius revised US GDP growth to average 1.5% in 2025, down from 1.9%. He sees a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, while colleague David Kostin slashed the 2025 S&P 500 target to 5,700 from 6,200 due to higher recession risk and tariff-related uncertainty.

Assuming his economic call holds true, Berezin expects the S&P 500 to reach 4,450, a 21% drop from current levels. He suggests investors consider gold, consumer staples, and bonds as safe havens amid market uncertainty.

As Trump tariffs and retaliations loom, Wall Street economists like Hatzius and Kostin are becoming more cautious about the economy and stock market outlook. SocGen and Yardeni Research have also lowered S&P 500 targets recently.

Read more: Trump tariffs could send the S&P 500 to 4,450 and the economy into recession