From Morningstar: 2025-04-07 04:23:00

The US tariff hikes announced on April 2 are expected to have severe economic consequences, reducing real GDP growth forecasts over the next few years by 1.1 percentage points. Recession risk has increased to 40%-50% in the next 12 months. Inflation forecasts have also been adjusted upwards. The average US tariff rate currently stands at 25.5%, the highest in over a century, which could have lasting impacts on the economy. Trump’s decision to implement tariffs is seen as a departure from previous strategies and could have long-term implications for US trade and economic policies. The uncertainty caused by the tariffs is expected to negatively impact consumer and business spending, potentially leading to a recession. The use of tariff revenue for tax cuts could affect inflation and monetary policy decisions moving forward.



Read more at Morningstar: US Recession Chances Jump in New Post-Tariff Forecast