From Yahoo Finance: 2025-05-06 12:07:00

JPMorgan Research suggests a 60% chance of recession in 2025, up from 40%. Economist Clement Bohr discusses the impact of tariff policies on recession predictions, noting the challenge of forecasting due to policy fluctuations. Mortgage rates typically drop during recessions due to increased bond investments.

Bohr notes that the trade war with China may lead to inflation, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower rates. With a possible recession and inflation risks, mortgage rates may remain stable. Existing home sales may increase with slight rate declines, offering hope for buyers. Analysts don’t expect significant drops in rates soon, barring unexpected economic shocks.

Read more: Do mortgage rates go down in a recession?