From Nasdaq: 2025-05-15 01:48:00

Walmart is set to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings with analysts predicting earnings of 58 cents per share on $164.47 billion in revenue, representing an 8% decline in earnings and a 2% sales increase compared to the prior year. Historically, WMT stock rises 50% of the time following earnings announcements.

Walmart’s management highlighted challenges from tariffs, inflation, and economic volatility affecting profit margins and future profitability. Despite this, Walmart remains financially strong with a market capitalization of $774 billion, $681 billion in revenue over the last year, $27 billion in operating profit, and $16 billion in net income.

For event-driven traders, historical patterns may provide an edge in reacting to post-earnings moves. The Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, generating returns exceeding 91%. The portfolio offers an alternative for those seeking lower volatility than individual stocks.

Observations on Walmart’s one-day post-earnings returns show a 50% positive return rate over the last five years. This rate increases to 67% over the last 3 years. The median positive return is 3.6%, while the median negative return is -2.4%. Additional data for 5-Day and 21-Day returns post-earnings is available.

Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can help traders determine appropriate trades. For example, a high correlation between 1D and 5D returns may indicate a potential long position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year history is provided.

Peer performance can also influence post-earnings stock reaction, with pricing-in potentially starting before earnings are announced. Historical data on Walmart’s stock performance compared to peers who reported earnings just before Walmart is available for analysis. Consider Trefis RV strategy for market-beating portfolios.



Read more at Nasdaq: How Will Walmart’s Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?