Is a Recession Imminent Under President Donald Trump? Here’s What More Than 110 Years of History Has to Say.
From Yahoo Finance: 2025-05-31 03:06:00
The U.S. economy has shown consistent growth for 16 years, except for a brief period during the COVID-19 pandemic. Warren Buffett has advised not to bet against America, backed by tangible data.
An intriguing correlation exists between U.S. recessions and the political party in power, posing potential concerns for President Trump. Economic cycles and stock market cycles do not mirror each other, providing optimism for workers and investors.
Over 112 years, Democratic presidents faced recessions that began under their watch, while all Republican presidents, including Trump, oversaw a recession. This doesn’t imply negative policies, as downturns are normal for the economy.
Trump’s tariff and trade policies could push the U.S. into a recession. Recent tariffs have been amended, with concerns about trade relations, consumer sentiment, and potential inflation. Initial first-quarter GDP showed contraction, raising fears of a recession.
Despite historical correlations, statistical data doesn’t suggest an imminent recession under Trump. GDPNow model forecasts growth after a first-quarter contraction, emphasizing the nonlinearity of economic and stock market cycles.
While recession concerns persist, they are typically short-lived. Economic expansions last longer, with recessions being a normal part of the cycle. Even with potential downturns, equities are expected to rise over time, based on historical data.
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Sean Williams has no position in mentioned stocks. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The article discusses the potential for a recession under President Trump based on historical data.